THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(1) UConn (27-2, 12-12 ATS) at (3) Pittsburgh (27-3, 15-8 ATS)
A battle for a potential share of first place in the Big East takes place when Connecticut, seeking revenge for an earlier home loss, travels to the Petersen Events Center to take on Pittsburgh in the regular-season finale.
Since losing to Pitt nearly three weeks ago, UConn has grabbed three straight wins (1-2 ATS), including a 72-65 victory over Notre Dame last Saturday, failing to cash as a heavy 11½-point road chalk. The Huskies, who are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts, have outscored opponents by an even 15 ppg on the year (76.6-61.6). But over the past five games, that margin has tightened substantially, with Connecticut averaging 71.8 ppg and allowing 65.4.
The Panthers bounced back from an upset loss at Providence to notch a pair of wins, including Wednesday’s impressive 90-75 victory over No. 13 Marquette as a healthy 9½-point home favorite. Pitt, which is on a 7-2 ATS roll, has rolled up 81.6 ppg in its last five starts, while allowing 72.6 ppg, and the Panthers have averaged 82.9 ppg on their home floor this season, nearly 20 points more than their opponents (63.1).
Connecticut is tied for first with Louisville in the Big East with a 15-2 SU mark (9-8 ATS), going a perfect 8-0 SU on the road (6-2 ATS). Pittsburgh is a game back in league play at 14-3 SU (12-5 ATS), including 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home.
Pitt is on a 3-1 ATS run in this rivalry (2-2 SU), including a 76-68 road win on Feb. 16 as a 2½-point pup. Going back further, the Panthers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, the visitor is 7-3 ATS in he last 10, and the underdog has covered in six of the last eight meetings.
The Huskies are on ATS upswings of 4-1 on the road (all in the Big East) and 6-2 in roadies against teams with a home winning percentage above .600, and they’re 3-0 SU and ATS as an underdog this season. However, they’ve dropped four straight ATS decisions in Saturday games and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Big East starts. The Panthers, meanwhile, are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 as a favorite of 12 points of fewer, 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday and 5-2 after a SU win, and their current 7-2 ATS roll has come entirely within the Big East.
The under is on a 4-1 run in this rivalry, with the lone “over” occurring last month. Also, the under for Connecticut is on tears of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 5-1 on the road and 5-2 in Big East play. On the flip side, the over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 at home, 19-7-1 in conference action and 4-0-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Michigan (18-12, 14-10-1 ATS) at Minnesota (21-8, 11-12-1 ATS)
Minnesota aims to firm up its postseason credentials when it takes on Michigan in the Big Ten regular-season finale for both teams at Williams Arena.
The Gophers edged Wisconsin in a defensive battle 51-46 Wednesday as a 2½-point home chalk, stemming a 1-3 SU and 1-6 ATS plunge. For the season, Minnesota has averaged 66.6 points per game and given up 61.5 ppg, but its offense has tailed off in the last five games in averaging 57.8 ppg, while the Gophers have given up just a tick less in that span (57.0 ppg).
The Wolverines have been idle since Sunday’s 60-55 setback at Wisconsin, cashing as a seven-point underdog for their third ATS win in the last four games (2-2 SU). Michigan has struggled on the road the past two months, going 1-7 SU (2-5 ATS in lined games), and for the season, the Wolverines are averaging 60 ppg on the highway and giving up 68.5 ppg.
Minnesota is 9-8 SU (7-10 ATS) in the Big Ten, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in Minneapolis. Michigan is 8-9 SU and ATS in conference, with a 2-6 SU and ATS road mark.
The SU winner in this rivalry has gone 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, with the teams splitting those 10 contests at the betting window. The favorite is on a 5-0 ATS roll, and Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes at Williams Arena.
The Gophers are on ATS slides of 3-9 overall (all in the Big Ten), 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 against winning teams, but they’ve covered in nine of their last 12 home games and are on a 5-1 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record. The Wolverines sport positive ATS trends of 6-2 overall and 6-1 against winning teams, but they are on a 3-7-1 ATS dive on the road and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a spread-cover and 1-4 ATS as an underdog of less than five points.
The under for Minnesota is on sprees of 7-2 overall (all in Big Ten play), 41-19 at home, 6-2 against winning teams, 38-14 on Saturday and 13-6 after a SU win, and the under for Michigan is on streaks of 9-4-1 overall, 13-3-1 on the highway and 18-8-1 in conference action. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last 10 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
(15) Missouri (22-5, 14-9 ATS) at Texas A&M (22-8, 14-8 ATS)
Surging Texas A&M gears up for a Big 12 battle when it plays host to streaking Missouri at Reed Arena.
The Aggies dropped Colorado 72-66 Wednesday in Boulder for their fifth straight victory, but they fell just short of covering as a 6½-point chalk, which ended a 5-0 ATS run. A&M has been putting up 75.2 ppg during its winning streak, nearly five points better than its season average of 70.3, and the Aggies have given up 65.8 ppg in that stretch, nearly matching their season defensive average of 65.1 ppg.
The Tigers bounced back from last Saturday’s blowout loss at Kansas to beat fourth-ranked Oklahoma 73-64 as a four-point home favorite, capping a perfect home record and notching their eighth win in the last nine games (7-2 ATS). For the season, Mizzou is outscoring opponents by 14 ppg (81-67), but on the road, the Tigers are averaging 73.1 ppg while allowing just a shade more at 73.9.
Missouri is 12-3 SU (10-5 ATS) in Big 12 play, including 4-3 SU and ATS on the road. Texas A&M is 8-7 SU (10-5 ATS) in conference, with a 5-2 SU and ATS home mark.
Texas A&M has cashed in seven straight meetings in this rivalry (5-2 SU), including a 77-69 road win last season giving 1½ points. The Aggies have won and covered from the favorite’s role in the last four contests.
The Aggies are on a bundle of spread-covering streaks, including 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU win, 7-1 against winning teams, 5-1 on Saturday, 8-3 as an underdog this season and 45-22 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Tigers are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 6-2 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU win, but they’ve cashed in just seven of their last 19 road starts and are on an 11-27 ATS slide in roadies against teams with a winning home record.
The over for A&M is on runs of 4-1 overall (all in the Big 12) and 4-1 after a SU win, and the over is 4-1 in Missouri’s last five road games against teams with a winning home record. However, the under for the Aggies is on stretches of 7-2 on Saturday and 7-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M
Kentucky (19-11, 12-12-1 ATS) at Florida (21-9, 8-14-1 ATS)
Florida plays host to Kentucky at the O’Connell Center in a battle of two teams very much in need of a win to prop up their NCAA Tournament hopes.
The Gators stumbled at Mississippi State 80-71 as a one-point road chalk Wednesday for their third consecutive SU and ATS loss, and they are now 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven outings. Florida has averaged 78.8 ppg this season, 10 points better than its opponents (68.7), but over the last five games, the Gators are putting up 77.2 ppg but allowing 76.4.
The Wildcats have also dropped three in a row SU and ATS following Wednesday’s embarrassing 90-85 upset loss to Georgia as an overwhelming 17½-point home favorite. Kentucky, which is on a 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS freefall, have surrendered 75 ppg over the last five contests after giving up 65 ppg in their first 25 games.
Florida and Kentucky are both 8-7 SU in the SEC, with the Gators 6-8-1 ATS and the Wildcats 6-9 ATS. Florida is 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS in home conference games, and Kentucky is 4-3 SU and ATS when visiting league rivals.
Florida has covered in three of the last four clashes in this rivalry, losing 68-65 last month in Lexington but cashing as a 4½-point underdog. The Gators are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the home team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Gators carry nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 1-5 overall (all in the SEC), 6-16 at home, 0-5 after a SU loss, 1-4 against winning teams and 4-10 as a favorite of less than 15 points The Wildcats have gone 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Saturday affairs and 3-0 as an underdog of fewer than 17 points, but are otherwise on pointspread declines of 2-7 against winning teams, 1-6 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 1-5 after a SU loss and 2-5 after a non-cover. Plus, Kentucky’s ongoing 2-8 ATS slide has all come in conference play.
The over has hit in four of Kentucky’s last six games, and the over for Florida is on rolls of 5-1 overall, 17-4 after a SU loss, 13-6-1 after an ATS setback and 4-1 at home. However, the under for the Gators is on runs of 6-2 on Saturday and 11-5 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(25) Syracuse (22-8, 13-13 ATS) at (13) Marquette (23-7, 12-12-1 ATS)
Syracuse looks to continue its late-season surge when it wraps up the regular season with a trip to Milwaukee to take on Marquette in a Big East battle at the Bradley Center.
The Orange hammered Rutgers 70-40 Tuesday to easily cash as a 14-point home chalk, notching their third straight win and cover since suffering an 89-86 home loss to Villanova as a two-point favorite. Syracuse is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five starts, all in the Big East, and the Orange have averaged a solid 85.6 ppg on 53.2 percent shooting in that stretch, while giving up 68.8 ppg on 41.3 percent shooting.
The Golden Eagles got rolled at Pittsburgh 90-75 Wednesday as a 9½-point road ‘dog for their third straight loss (1-2 ATS), following a modest three-game winning streak. Despite its current skid, Marquette is still outscoring opponents by an average of nearly 10 ppg this season (79.1-69.5), and that margin improves to more than 15 ppg at the Bradley Center (83.5-67.2), where the Eagles are 16-1 SU but only 5-6-1 ATS in lined games.
Marquette is 12-5 SU (9-8 ATS) in the Big East, including 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home. Syracuse is 10-7 SU (9-8 ATS) in conference, with a 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS road mark.
These teams have met just twice since Marquette joined the Big East, with Syracuse winning and covering in both games, including an 87-72 home rout last season as a one-point chalk. Two years ago, Syracuse won 70-58 in Milwaukee catching 3½ points.
In addition to their current 4-1 ATS run, the Orange are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday outings. However, they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 on the road, 2-6 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 3-9 after a SU win of more than 20 points and 3-7 following a spread-cover.
The Eagles are on a 2-6 ATS nosedive overall, all in the Big East, and are on additional ATS purges of 1-4 at home and 1-4-1 after a SU loss, but they still sport positive pointspread runs of 5-1 as a favorite of less than eight points, 15-5-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 8-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The over for Syracuse is on upswings of 4-0 on Saturday, 6-2 after a SU win and 5-2 after a spread-cover, and the over for Marquette is on streaks of 16-5 on Saturday, 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-3 at home against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE
California (22-8, 16-11 ATS) at (21) Arizona State (21-8, 15-10 ATS)
Suddenly struggling Arizona State looks to halt a three-game slide when it hosts Pac-10 foe California, which is finishing the regular season strong.
Two months after winning by 30 points at Stanford, the Sun Devils fell to the Cardinal 74-64 on Thursday as a 10-point favorite. Last weekend, Arizona State dropped consecutive games in overtime at Washington (73-70) and Washington State (51-49) and has now dropped three straight for the first time this season. Herb Sendek’s squad has also followed a 4-0 ATS run by failing to cover in three of its last four.
The Golden Bears bounced back from a tough four-point home loss to UCLA with Thursday’s 83-77 victory at Arizona as a four-point road underdog, outscoring the Wildcats 49-39 in the second half. Cal has rebounded from a 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) slump by winning six of its last eight games (5-3 ATS).
Cal sits in third place in the Pac-10 at 11-6 (9-7 ATS), one game ahead of the Sun Devils (10-7 SU and ATS). The Bears are 4-4 SU and ATS as a visitor in Pac-10 play, while Arizona State is 5-3 in conference home games (4-4 ATS).
The Bears knocked off Arizona State 81-71 as a 1½-point home underdog back on Jan. 4, ending an 8-0 SU and ATS run by the visitor in this rivalry. Cal has won its last four games in Tempe both SU and ATS, with three of those contests decided by a total of nine points. The underdog is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings, the visitor is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 and the winner has cashed in each of the last nine head-to-head clashes.
The Sun Devils have cashed in 10 of their last 12 after a non-cover and they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Cal is on ATS streaks of 10-4 after a SU win, 9-2 after a non-cover, 11-5 against winning teams and 7-3 as an underdog of seven points or less, but the Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven on Saturday.
Cal is on a slew of “over” streaks, including 7-3 overall, 21-9 on the road, 25-8 in Pac-10 action, 13-6 on Saturday and 8-0 versus winning teams. Also, the over is 5-1 in Arizona State’s last six home games, 11-2 in its last 13 against winning teams, 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this series and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Tempe.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL and OVER
Oklahoma State (20-9, 11-11-1 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (26-4, 13-11-1 ATS)
Two Big 12 rivals headed in opposite directions down the stretch clash at the Noble Center in Norman, Okla., as the slumping Sooners host streaking Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys have caught fire at the right time, winning and cashing in six straight games, all in conference. On Monday, they held off Kansas State 77-71, barely holding on as a 5½-point home favorite. Oklahoma State is averaging 80.5 ppg during its winning streak while allowing 68 ppg, and it has won and covered consecutive road games at Colorado (76-55) and Texas Tech (92-82).
Oklahoma started the Big 12 campaign 11-0, but it has since dropped three of its last four both SU and ATS, including Monday’s 73-64 setback at Missouri as a four-point road underdog. The Sooners, who are 3-5-1 ATS in their last eight contests (all in the Big 12), had a 19-game home winning streak snapped in their last contest at the Noble Center, falling to then-No. 15 Kansas 87-78 as a two-point chalk. However, they were without star forward Blake Griffin (concussion) in that Feb. 23 game.
Oklahoma (12-3, 8-6-1 ATS in conference) is tied with Missouri for second place in the Big 12, one game behind Kansas, and the Sooners are 6-1 when hosting league rivals (3-4 ATS). The Cowboys are 9-6 in league play (8-7 ATS), including 3-4 SU and ATS on the road, and the SU winner has covered in 14 of their last 15 conference games.
The Sooners have won four consecutive meetings in this rivalry (3-1 ATS) and six of the last seven (4-2-1 ATS), including an 89-81 triumph as a 2½-point road chalk on Jan. 26. The favorite is on a 7-3-1 ATS run in the Bedlam Rivalry, and the visitor has cashed at a 5-1-1 clip in the last seven clashes.
Although they’ve cashed in six straight games overall and they’re 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Saturday contests, the Cowboys have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 on the highway and they’re 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season. Oklahoma is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight on Saturday and 10-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 12 points or fewer, but 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record.
The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry and in the last five in Norman. Also, the under is 4-0 in Oklahoma State’s last four overall, 4-1 in its last five on Saturday and 9-4 in Oklahoma’s last 13 on Saturday. However, the Sooners have topped the total in 11 of their last 12 contests at the Noble Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Texas (20-9, 11-15 ATS) at (9) Kansas (24-6, 17-6-1 ATS)
Kansas, returning to the court for the first time since suffering an embarrassing loss at Texas Tech, goes for its 41st consecutive victory at Allen Fieldhouse as it hosts Big 12 rival Texas.
The Jayhawks went to Lubbock, Texas, as a 10-point road favorite Wednesday and left with their most lopsided loss of the season, an 84-65 defeat to the Red Raiders, ending a five-game SU winning streak and a 7-0-1 ATS roll. Kansas, which had averaged 80.8 ppg and allowed 64.6 ppg during its winning streak, has won 40 straight at Allen Fieldhouse, the longest current home winning streak in the NCAA. This year, Kansas is 17-0 SU and 10-1-1 ATS on its home floor.
Texas improved to 5-2 (3-4 ATS) in its last seven games with Monday’s 73-57 rout of Baylor as an eight-point home favorite. The Longhorns have averaged 83.4 ppg in their last five victories while putting up just 61.3 ppg in their last four defeats. Rick Barnes’ squad has lost three of its last four on the highway (0-4 ATS).
Kansas (13-2, 12-2-1 ATS in conference) has clinched at least a share of its fifth straight regular-season Big 12 championship, as it leads both Missouri and Oklahoma by one game but has already defeated both teams. The Jayhawks are unbeaten through eight conference home games (6-1-1 ATS). Texas is 9-6 in the Big 12, but just 5-10 ATS, including 3-4 on the road (2-5 ATS).
These teams last met in the Big 12 tournament championship game a year ago, with the Jayhawks rolling to an 84-74 win as a 5½-point favorite. Kansas has won four of the last five meetings (2-3 ATS), with three of those wins coming in the tournament. In regular-season action, the host has won six consecutive meetings (4-2 ATS). Finally, the Longhorns have cashed in seven of the last 10 battles and the ‘dog is on a 4-1 ATS roll.
Texas is in ATS funks of 5-11 overall, 0-4 on the road, 6-14-1 in Big 12 play, 1-5 on Saturday, 0-5 after a SU win and 0-5 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the Jayhawks are on positive pointspread runs of 23-7-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 16-5-1 in conference play, 5-1 on Saturday and 37-16-1 against winning teams. Kansas’ 17-6-1 overall ATS mark is tied for third best in the nation.
The over is on runs of 4-1 overall in this rivalry, 4-0 when these teams meet in Kansas, 4-1 for the Jayhawks against winning teams and 4-1 for Texas versus winning squads. However, the under is 5-2 in the Longhorns’ last seven on Saturday, 8-3 in Kansas’ last 11 overall and 8-3 in Kansas’ last 11 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
(12) LSU (25-5, 12-10 ATS) at Auburn (20-10, 18-5 ATS)
Auburn will try to continue its late-season push toward an NCAA Tournament bid when it goes in search of its fourth consecutive victory in this regular-season finale against SEC foe LSU.
Auburn has won three in a row and seven of its last eight, cashing in all eight contests. The only SU setback came at LSU on Feb. 21, a 79-72 loss as an eight-point road underdog. Auburn has been very consistent offensively during its 7-1 SU run, scoring between 71 and 78 points in seven of the games while notching 91 in the other contest. The Tigers have won and covered four straight home games, with the last three being double-digit blowouts.
LSU had a 10-game overall and 13-game SEC winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s surprising 75-67 home loss to Vanderbilt as a 9½-point favorite. LSU, which had scored at least 70 points in 14 consecutive games prior to Wednesday, has followed up a 7-2 ATS run by failing to cover in four of its last six. However, since losing their SEC opener at Alabama (65-59) on Jan. 11, the Tigers have won six straight conference road games (5-1 ATS).
LSU has already clinched the SEC regular-season title with a 13-2 league mark (9-6 ATS), going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on the road. Auburn is second in the SEC West behind LSU at 9-6 (11-4 ATS), including 5-2 SU and ATS at home.
Including the 79-72 home win on Feb. 21, LSU has won eight of the last 10 against Auburn, but Auburn has covered in six of the last seven. LSU’s one spread-cover came last year at Auburn, an 81-80 victory as a 4½-point road underdog. The pup is on a 6-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the visitor has covered in three straight and six of the last eight.
Auburn has the second-best ATS mark in Division I at 18-5, and in addition to cashing in eight straight SEC games, the Tigers are on ATS upticks of 4-0 at home, 4-0 on Saturday, 7-0 versus winning teams, 6-0 after a SU victory and 10-1 after a spread-cover. LSU is just 11-28-1 ATS in its last 40 games on Saturday.
The last four meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total. Also, LSU is on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the road and 10-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Finally, the over is 4-1 in Auburn’s last five on Saturday, 8-3 in its past 11 against winning teams and 22-10 in its last 32 after an outright victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and OVER
(6) Louisville (24-5, 17-11-1 ATS) at West Virginia (21-9, 13-14 ATS)
Louisville can clinch at least a share of the Big East championship when it closes out the regular season in Morgantown against West Virginia, which has used a strong late-season push to all but assure itself of a March Madness bid.
The Cardinals ran their winning streak to six in a row with Wednesday’s 95-78 rout of Seton Hall, pushing as a 17-point home favorite. Louisville has followed a 1-3 ATS slump by going 4-1-1 ATS during its six-game winning streak. Also, Rick Pitino’s squad is 7-1 SU and ATS in Big East road games, with six of those seven wins coming by nine points or more.
The Mountaineers have won two in a row and five of their last six (4-2 ATS). On Wednesday, they rolled over hapless DePaul 82-63, but came up just short as a 22-point home favorite, making the SU winner 8-1 ATS in West Virginia’s last nine games. All but three of the Mountaineers’ 21 victories have been by double digits, with the last eight coming by an average of 18.8 ppg. Finally, Bob Huggins’ squad has won five consecutive home games (all in the Big East), going 4-1 ATS.
Louisville and UConn are tied for first place in the Big East with 15-2 conference records, with the Cardinals going 12-4-1 ATS overall, including their 7-1 SU and ATS road record in league play. West Virginia is 10-7 in conference (9-8 ATS), including 6-2 in Morgantown (4-4 ATS).
The Cardinals have won four of the five meetings in this rivalry (3-1-1 ATS) going back to the 2005 NCAA Tournament. On Jan. 31, Louisville topped the Mountaineers 69-63 at home, but West Virginia used a surge in the waning minutes to barely cover as a 6½-point underdog.
Louisville’s ATS runs are plentiful, including 38-12-3 in Big East play since last season, 24-7-1 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday. West Virginia is on ATS runs of 4-1 at home, 5-2 on Saturday and 5-0 after a non-cover.
The Cardinals have topped the total in six of their last seven overall, but West Virginia has stayed under the total in seven of its last nine overall and seven of its last 10 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
